Watching the DEBATE? MULL it over..

I thought the information below from my buddy Rich Galen’s MULLINGS COLUMN might help … particularly because I think it’s going to go terribly for Trump.  I know, you probably don’t agree, but unless he’s had a complete transformation, he’s going to get unattractively angry, spout silly facts, insult a woman, brag outrageously….or something. At least I can’t picture him driving his own car let alone carrying his dog in a crate on the roof, a la Romney, or even having a dog that could shed on his suits. That’s a blessing, at least.

SO…to cheer us all up after we’ve watched, I thought I’d copy/paste some of Rich’s info from his column, MULLINGS, which you probably ought to read, even subscribe to (tho you don’t have to in order to get it).  Here go his reassuring reminders:

  • Make no mistake. “The Debate” matters. It may matter a great deal because the two candidates don’t meet again until Sunday, October 9 – after nearly two weeks of nattering and babbling about who won, and what the perceived loser has to do to regain his/her footing in the next debate.
  • In the first debate between President Ronald Reagan and challenger Walter Mondale in 1984, Reagan was seen has stumbling over his thoughts and words. The immediate reaction (CNN was only four years old and Fox News Channel was a dozen years from its birth) was that Reagan was showing his age (nearly 74) and might have been losing his grip.
    • Reporter Dave Weigel, wrote on Slate.com

    “Reagan confessed to [adviser Stu] Spencer that he had flopped. According to Jack Germond and Jules Witcover, when Mondale left the stage, he confided to an aide that ‘This guy is gone’ — as in mentally not all there.”

    • A poll conducted by Gallup and Newsweek “found 54 percent of debate-watchers giving the victory to Mondale, and only 35 percent to Reagan.” Reagan’s 18-point pre-debate lead immediately dropped by seven points.

    • In the second debate, Reagan diffused the age issue very quickly with this famous line:

    “I will not make age an issue in this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience”

    • Senator Mondale was 56 years old, had served two years in the U.S. Army, had been Jimmy Carter’s Vice President, U.S. Ambassador to Japan, and was a sitting U.S. Senator.
    • Reagan went on to win 49 states (525 Electoral Votes to 13) in 1984 and won the popular vote by the fifth most lopsided margin in history: 58.8% to 40.6%. Ross Perot came in third in 1992 but may have tilted the election toward Bill Clinton and away from George H.W. Bush.  (Z: listening, Johnson voters?)

    • There are many such moments that have been produced by these debates and no one should be surprised if “The Debate” adds to that library. Nor, given the build up, should we be surprised if the whole thing comes off as a dud and the two candidates come out of “The Debate” more-or-less in a tie.
    • The most likely result is that Clinton supporters will passionately believe that she won; Trump supporters will be equally fervent in claiming he was the clear winner.
    • END of pasting.

SO:  I’m thinking if Trump does as badly as I feel he will tonight, at least Reagan’s numbers dropped precipitously, too.   That gives me some hope.  You, too?

Are you going to watch?   What do YOU think’ll happen?

(and if you want to read a REALLY FEEL GOOD STORY, check out my post below)

(And RIP, Arnold Palmer…I hope you’re playing golf with my dad…in heaven)

Z

 

 

 

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32 Responses to Watching the DEBATE? MULL it over..

  1. bocopro says:

    Staged. Rehearsed. Choreographed. And about as genuinely meaningful as an original drama written, directed, produced, and performed by the Frog’s Retreat, Louisiana, Middle School Short Bus Thespians Club.

    What’s MUCH more important is which side, R or D, has managed to amass the most ballots from deceased voters prior to the in-person, name-recognition, gender-loyalty, popularity contest polling 8 November when self-important, harumphing “monitors” come in to determine just how MUCH fraud has been perpetrated by WHOM with the machines and registration rolls.

  2. John M. Berger says:

    “Are you going to watch? What do YOU think’ll happen?”
    1) Yes, I will watch.
    2) The potential volatility here renders me clueless as to what will actually happen.

  3. Silverfiddle says:

    I’m playing banjo tonight at a bluegrass jam, so I won’t be watching.

    Some pundits believe the Twitteratti will declare a winner within the first half house, others partially agree, saying we will be subjected to a deluge of twitterrhea created by tweeting twits on both sides trying to spin the debate and sway the soft-headed.

    Z: I share your fears. Will Trump be disciplined? Theories abound. If he can look and sound presidential while not trashing Hillary, he wins.

    Others say, and I agree, that if Hillary can just cover up those sharp edges, refrain from angrily haranguing the crowd and present herself as a warm human being, she wins.

  4. Sparky says:

    “Are you going to watch? What do YOU think’ll happen?”
    1) No. I’ll catch the analysis and snippets from my internet sources (take a bow Z.)
    2) Well, if Trump let’s the Hildabeast rant, he’s golden. If he rises to the race baiter America hating Leftists and rants, it’s over for America.

  5. geeez2014 says:

    Ed, I’m a big Doris fan….rough to see her in association with THESE TWO (smile!)
    but yes…que sera, sera Except that attitude doesn’t create blog commenting fun and good discussion 🙂

    Bocopro…Oh, I think this IS genuinely meaningful….this night could sway the whole election…IF the deceased voters don’t raise their ugly heads AND , more frightening, hackers don’t completely override all our votes and literally pick our president for us because we are FAR FAR too stupid to fix our voting system to resemble Germany’s..

    JMB: The potential volatility is going to give me the willies all day!!

    Silverfiddle; I guess Twitter will play a part, but with people like me (and there are millions) who don’t Tweet, that’s not going to matter until later, when the media covers the Twitter commotion.

    There is no way Hillary will appear as a ‘warm human being’….i’m hoping Trump SMILES a little because, lately, he’s been doing that and it’s disarming and people will be attracted to that….I guarantee it. There’s a surprisingly nice and fun man behind that smile I’ve seen only lately and only a little, and that could be a winner.
    I’m starting to believe WHAT they say is not NEARLY as important as HOW THEY SAY IT.
    If Trump calls her a name he’s toast……..

    If Trump tries to appeal only to his hardcore “WE LOVE TRUMP” folks only, which he often does, we’re screwed. It’s not a big enough amount to win…I’m hoping he’s learned that their liking him, no matter HOW good it feels, does NOT win an election….and he needs to be helping us Anti-Hillary people defeat her, not just feeding his huge ego.

    Hillary will try to show everything she knows, which is considerable and boring as hell…..if she tries smiling and being warm, she’ll look like she’s become someone else and is untrustworthy and even somewhat unbalanced.

    Did you all know there’s a rumor the camera men have been told to veer off her if she starts to cough? Did you all approve of her standing on something that makes her taller because the height disparity between them is quite large? What do you think of that?

  6. geeez2014 says:

    Sparky, that’s nice, thank you!! I try! But HOW can you NOT WATCH?!!!!
    And I TOTALLY agree on your take…..thanks for that. Horrifying to consider…we’ll all be on tenterhooks, won’t we!

    It’s like a scary movie…with your hands over your face but peeking thru your fingers so you don’t miss anything, right, everybody!?

  7. Silverfiddle says:

    Z: Those of us who do not tweet will feel the secondary and tertiary effects.

    The initial twitstorm doesn’t impact us. It is mostly for internal consumption by the commentariate–trying to prep the battlefield and influence fellow-pundits and the hardcore political junkies.

    We feel the secondary effects in subsequent commentary the next day, and tertiary effects in blog posts and comments in news story comment threads.

  8. Kid says:

    If I go blind and deaf by tonight, I’ll watch.

  9. geeez2014 says:

    SF.. I didn’t mean to suggest we’re not at all affected by it, but at least most of us will be watching the screen and not concentrating on every last Tweet that gets printed…
    The Twitterstorm does make a difference..it does influence, no about it. I guess we kind of mean the same thing when I suggested the twitterstorm gets covered by the media and then we have to hear about it, like it or not!

    Kid… I have a friend whose dog lost his sight; he used to stand in front of walls and bark his head off. 🙂

  10. geeez2014 says:

    I was watching Hillary’s reaction when BETWEEN TWO FERNS’ guy asked “As Secretary, how much words did you type?” She looked like she was stunned that anybody’d think SHE would DEIGN to TYPE, tho we know she got his ‘joke’… I’m hoping a LOT of secretaries who type all day long and find it an honorable job saw that and reacted…but they’re mostly Republicans, if they’re working hard and taking pride in their work, so they probably were too busy working and then going home to raise children to watch Between Two Ferns!

  11. Mal says:

    I’m confident Trump has been duly warned about “losing it”……at least I HOPE he has! I believe he will keep his cool ’cause he knows if he doesn’t, he’s toast. Remember…..we’re comparing a failed, lying politician to a flamboyant, highly successful worldwide businessman with a background in T.V. That being said, the party of his competitor is well-oiled, well-financed and highly successful in subversive tactics so anything can happen. Viewership should break all records for any event in history……..not just nationwide, but worldwide.

  12. Mal says:

    As for Doris Day, I saw her in person……twice. Once, while we were seated back stage in Hollywood before she went on the air, and she was warming up her voice. The second time was in 1965 during a shoot for the film “Capri”. They were filming on a patio area located just outside our building in Century City in L.A. (I was branch mgr. for a S & L).

  13. Imp says:

    As the first presidential debate looms later Monday evening just an hour from here on Long Island at Hofstra University, a Breitbart News analysis of current polling in the presidential election shows that Donald J. Trump—the Republican nominee for president—would win the election if it were held Monday and the polls are correct.

    Clinton Could Win PA, MI, WI, NM, VA… and Still Lose Electoral College!

  14. Mal says:

    That’s encouraging, Imp. I hope its right. Not only our country, but the entire world will be affected by the outcome. Probably the last time anything of this magnitude occurred was in the early 1930’s when Germany elected Hitler into power. Without him, WW ll probably wouldn’t have happened.

  15. Bob says:

    Chances are the debate will be as boring as anything Hillary has done. She will call Trump names, and question his ability to govern, but she will not be able to invigorate the audience.

    I want to see a cage match. Put them into a ring, surround it with mesh fence wire, and let them go. No time limits, no questions, and no moderators. That would be better entertainment than NFL football. As things stand now, I would rather watch the Falcons and Saints, two of my favorite teams, duke it out on Monday night football. I will record the debate.

    I believe Trump has at least an even chance of “winining”, whatever that is. All it takes is a rough cough and Hillary is out of it.

  16. geeez2014 says:

    Bob, I heard that the cameras have been instructed to go off Hillary if she coughs… one of the debate stipulations, apparently…like her podium is smaller than his so she doesn’t look ‘less than’ him.

    How ANYBODY could think this night’s debate will be boring is waaaay beyond me. I have to say I think it’ll be anything but boring…unless they both fall asleep or something!

    Mal, so cool that you’ve seen Doris sing in person….I’m a fan but Eydie Gourmet is my number one from those days…and I’ve been told many times I sound much like her. I once had one of the Ink Spots call me over to his table entourage to tell me how much he enjoyed my singing…that was a THRILL…And I dashed for the pay phone at the restaurant/bar to call Dad, then it hit me again that he’d died only months before. Man, he’d have been thrilled.

    Imp; I’m so hoping I don’t actually have to cast a vote for Trump because he’s so lacking in character for MY taste…..but I have to make 100% sure California’s electoral college is totally BLUE, which I THINK it is….if not, I will vote for him, God forbid.
    And I’ll certainly vote REPUBLICAN for all the down ballot stuff one way or the other…

    I HAVE to remember to start talking that up on my blog more….we MUST NOT STAY HOME …WE MUST VOTE FOR ALL THE REPUBLICANS…THIS TIME MORE THAN ANY TIME IN HISTORY

  17. geeez2014 says:

    BROTHER! i’ve got to say that these candidates must have THE biggest egos in the WORLD to not be scared WITLESS of the pressure tonight..American press, foreign press…..

    COULD YOU DO THIS? I have sung for 1000 people in a crowd, sometimes more, I think….sung in intimate clubs with people looking up my tonsils, sung with LOUSY bands that played too slowly or out of key, sung with great bands, sung for celebs like Placido, Carl Reiner, The Fifth Dimension, Rue McClanahan, Martin Sheen and his nice sons and Charlie, an Ink Spot, …lots of somewhat interesting people…..which most people ‘d be scared to death to sing in public…for celebs, etc..
    But THIS? On stage having to remember SO MUCH, knowing many hated me right off the bat, with an audience instructed not to clap or cheer, and millions watching, knowing ONE slip up and I’m TOAST, and that I’d just BETTER be in great health and not get tired after standing 90 minutes…? NO FREAKING WAY. NO WAY.
    Not for huuuuuge money.

    YOU??

  18. geeez2014 says:

    Can someone tell me what the BIG DEAL is that Trump thought Lester HOlt was a Democrat? Kelleyanne Conway’s being grilled terribly, and Yahoo feels it’s very important to lead with this story….And not she nor Trump has said the obvious defense: HOW MANY NEWS READERS ARE REPUBLICANS????
    Who thought LESTER HOLT was a Republican? And who’d guess he’s only Republican becaUSe he wanted once to vote in a primary?

    GEEESH

  19. edbonderenka says:

    So if she coughs off-camera, will they mute, also?
    What if she falls over dead?

  20. geeez2014 says:

    Ed….I have a comment for your second sentence, but I’d be arrested. 🙂
    Ya, I guess they’ll turn her mic off real fast, too? I don’t know. All she has to do is turn and cough and nobody’ll hear it…that’s how mics work, as you know.

  21. geeez2014 says:

    Clinton’s Mook, campaign bigwig, is all over the media saying something SO effective “We just want to make sure that Trump is fact checked because he lies SO much..and Hillary doesn’t want to have to spend all her debate time correcting him, she wants to tell the American people her plans to help this country:”

    OH, that is SOOOO GOOD!! Transparent as ALL GET OUT..but VERY clever.

  22. bocopro says:

    O.K. . . . now, I have no problem with Holt. He’s paid his dues and collected his boxtops, so I’ll give him his propers. He’s also a military brat (father AF MSGT), so he musta picked up sump’m along the way. But tell ME that a guy who grew up in Marin County, worked as a reporter for CBS for almost 20 years, then worked at MSNBC and now at NBC is a Republican?

    Nope! Ain’t buyin it. And I betcha dollars to donuts he voted for Soetoro — TWICE.

  23. geeez2014 says:

    bocopro….As I said somewhere above, I think?….Holt is probably a Republican only because there was some primary he wanted to vote for the Republican on…and he left it that way. I was a Dem for that reason for a few years…then I changed it back. He’s no Republican; I totally agree with you on this.

    Ed, I’ve just discovered my videos are not opening AGAIN…sorry about that.

  24. We’re watching the debate. We shall see what happens.

  25. “No wonder you’ve been fighting ISIS your entire adult life!!!!”

    OMG, Go Donald Trump!

  26. Imp says:

    DT is on the defensive…it doesn’t look good…he needs to go after her on her lack of cybersecurity.

  27. geeez2014 says:

    He was on the defensive the whole 90 minutes, or most of it.
    She is so despicable I can’t allow my brain to dwell on her another minute after a dreadful 90 minutes of her.

    I have to say I thought Trump was smarter than I’ve given him credit for.

    I’m going to blog this TOMORROW…let’s all talk then.

    g’night!

    gad, I can’t stand that woman, God help me.

  28. John M. Berger says:

    “gad, I can’t stand that woman, God help me.”

    Yeah, but God help [us], as well! If Trump was on the defensive, he was not being himself. Let’s see what the next time does? He may not be a nice guy in PC land but he’s no fool. I think there’s two more of these.

  29. Imp says:

    A potentially record audience is watching this debate, and Trump has FAILED to put Clinton on the defensive re: Clinton Foundation and how her use of a private email server endangered America’s national security.

  30. Mal says:

    Z, Edie Gorme was my favorite singer, too. She had such a range! To be compared to her is the ultimate compliment and I’m sure your dad would’ve been elated!

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