What will happen? Next week? In six months after Putin’s been in, or we’ve been in there fighting?
Z
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Well, see . . . sometimes there just ain’t no answer – sometimes the problem can’t be made to go away like an unwanted catholic pregnancy or a man-made plannedemic that got outta hand.
Short of removing Putin and Biden and replacing them with a Gorbachev and Reagan, Russia has all the trump cards and a player who knows how to use ‘em.
The situation is that Russia sees Ukraine much like JFK saw Cuba 60 years ago. As soon as Ukraine joins NATO, Russia has American missiles on its border. If history has taught us anything, it’s that wannabe tsars want those controllable buffer states on their western flank.
The problem with NATO unity at this point is that nobody on the other side of the Atlantic trusts Trunalimunumaprzure Joe after his disastrous handling of the Afghanexit. Add to that the fact that Germany, the strongest of all the Eurotoadies, is TOTALLY dependent on Russian oil and gas.
Putin is doing his job – protecting his country by refusing to allow hostile armaments on his border . . . unlike Biden, who refuses to protect his border from millions of penniless and probably contagious parasites.
IMO, the Murkan public is not ready for another war ANYwhere, much less with a technologically competitive superpower who would suffer FAR less damage in a conventional OR nuclear exchange. And who would profit from it all? Xi.
Most people in the US today are more worried about China, gasoline prices, inflation, and corrupt politicians than a central European country most of ‘em can’t find on an unlabled map.
I’m gonna go with the one piece of solid wisdom ever uttered by Barry Soetoro: “Don’t underestimate Joe’s capacity to f- – k things up.” Another lesson history has taught anyone who reads it is that Europeans are much better at this game than the U.S.
What’s going on right now is that the US doesn’t really have a dog in the fight, and Russia has every right to resist Murkan missiles on its doorstep. Most European nations are not eager to prod the red bear, and Germany will simply implode without Russian fuel. All Putin has to do is shut off the gas and Scholz aufgebens.
As Kenny Rogers told us, you gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em, and Joey is tryin to play checkers in a chess match with a past master.
No matter what Putin does, the outcome is already given – the US loses and China wins. Maybe the survivalist nuts have been right all along.
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Biden is still waiting on instructions from above.
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I can’t see Putin backing down now.
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As of now, Putin has done nothing more than positioning his military within the borders of his own country. I believe there are 100,000 troops staged near Rostov (east of Ukraine), and another 10,000 staged near the border with Belarus. His announced intention is “military exercises.” Mr. Putin knows what he’s doing. Part of conducting military exercises, particularly when they involve other countries, is to assess how countries in the region “react” to those military exercises. We do this all the time in Korea. Yes, we want to rehearse a military operation with our Korean allies, but we also want to see how North Korea, China, and Russia react to them. Putin and his military commanders are fully aware that the world is watching, and they are keeping a keen eye on NATO.
As of now, war is not a guarantee. It could happen if someone gets stupid, but as long as we keep Biden in the basement, that shouldn’t happen. But, as I’ve said, Putin is aware that the world is watching, so he is sensitive about “justification” for the possible invasion of Ukraine. My guess is that Mr. Putin is playing the Georgia card. If Russian troops enter Ukraine, it will be because Ukrainians are persecuting or threatening the large number of ethnic Russians who dominate eastern Ukraine. It takes time to “set up” something like that. It has to look good. Right now, he’s planting members of the Russian press where they can do the most good in capturing/recording Ukrainian forces violating the human rights of ethnic Russians.
China is watching — and Putin knows it. So whatever Putin decides to do, it will have to be awesome enough to impress the Chinese, everyone living in the “Stan’s,” and NATO. For China, it’s part of their entertainment package with DirecTV.
As to NATO help … this is a NATO show and, in fact, NATO created this mess to start with. Lastly, those 8,500 troops on stand-by … that would be a reinforced combat brigade, about a third of the size of a combat division. Putin won’t lose any sleep over it. If the number of Russian troops is correct, 110,000, that would be eleven combat divisions (discounting aviation assets).
We do live in interesting times.
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Ron wrote, “IMO, the Murkan public is not ready for another war.” He’s right. And neither is the U.S. military.
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Ok, here are my preliminary predictions.
Russia takes Ukraine.
China takes Taiwan and Tibet. And Indonesdia. And Thailiand. And Vietnam.
N Korea takes S Korea. China takes unified Koreas.
Iran takes Iraq.
Turkey takes Libya.
Paraguay takes Uruguay.
African countries unite into a single country, no longer just a continent anymore – Sarah Palin proudly announces “I Called This years ago during the Katie Couric interview!”.
Dogs demand kitten pets.
Kittens demand fish tanks.
Rick and Marty Lagina finally find and dig up Oak Island Treasure.
Michelle Obama goes on The View and admits to being transexual.
World Peace begins its 1000 year romp.
Asteroid hits next day and takes everything out.
Dems blame everything on Trump after the Earth renews, repopulates, and governments regenerate.
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Once more, Kid failed to address the polar bears. No one cares about the polar bears. Or the bi-polar bears either. Life is so unfair.
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Y’know . . . if you look at the news, you don’t see much panic in Kyiv. Maybe Zelensky is better at reading Russian nonverbs than our intelligence experts.
Now, I realize that to be seen as a world leader, the US has no choice but to give strong indications that it won’t tolerate a massive incursion into a sovereign nation, especially one which leans toward the West.
But can you even begin to imagine the rancor, the rage, the venom spewed by the MSM if Trump had mobilized troops to send in protection of an eastern European nation which had given his family millions of dollars for no justifiable reason?
Sometimes when a tyrant’s popularity polls are bottoming out, he’ll start rattling sabres and mobilizing troops as a distraction from his domestic economic, social, or national security failures.
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Mustang, Polar bears and I often get together and laugh at the hand wringing humans do over them. They’re so well equipped to deal with everything that comes up they sometimes wonder if they shouldn’t migrate South and help take care of the homeless in San Francisco for example. Then they realize what buttheads most people are and just stay where they are.
Bi-polar bears are where we get the bad weather from. Nobody wants to upset them unless it’s absolutely necessary.
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+++ upvotes for kid.
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Heh, thanks FJ
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BOCOPRO…Your statement here “What’s going on right now is that the US doesn’t really have a dog in the fight, and Russia has every right to resist Murkan missiles on its doorstep” brings up a thought I had while watching this story on the news, about hos Putin doesn’t want our missiles near him. As IF we’d DO anything without provocation? How dumb is that? To me, that’s just all hubris on his part. But Putin DEFINITELY ‘knows how to use” his cards………..he was just too fearful to use them around Trump.
WHICH IS THE GREATEST TAKE-AWAY LESSON OF ALL OF THIS. IT WOULDN’T HAPPEN UNDER TRUMP. PERIOD.
MUSTANG: Putin’s “just doing military exercises like we do” is probably the only excuse I’ve NOT heard from the experts………….The history of Putin and Ukraine pretty much makes that a long shot…..but I do hope you’re right. It’s not like PUtin hasn’t constantly insisted Russia has to have Ukraine..like they took Crimea. I don’t think we’ve ever suggested taking over Korea.
Do you think that if it’s true that Ukraine is hard on Russians living there that this possible incursion is what it takes? An enormous one like this? Then they do what?…go in and get their Russians out? Punish Ukraine somehow?
We knew how Korea and China and others took it when Trump was threatening anything; NOT WELL. They knew he meant business…………
MUSTANG..BI-POLAR BEARS…love it 🙂
KID, that list is WONDERFUl….only please, as I don’t mention the beast’s name here out of respect for you, please don’t mention PALIN here by name 🙂 Not sure what moniker I’d give her but that woman gets on MY LAST NERVE..personality more than ideology, of course!
TERRIFIC, thanks, Kid.
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Ditto what Bocopro said. Plus, Putin was really mad and embarrassed when Gorbachov’s bluff was called by JFK during the Cuban missile crisis so he is really motivated. All this would never have happened. under Trump.
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You got it Z. She was on Jesse Watters new show which we watched last night and she is still wrapped way too tight.
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KID..exactly! I just can’t be around that VOICE! Wrapped way too tight is a great way to explain her.
I remember Mr Z and I were on vacation in Santa Barbara when McCain nominated her..I was SO excited I remember jumping up and down on our bed 🙂 Yup!! tRUE. THAT feeling didn’t last too long!!
MAL…so true 😦
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Putin’s “just doing military exercises like we do” is probably the only excuse I’ve NOT heard from the experts.
I wasn’t offering excuses. You asked for “what we think.” Putin has “announced” joint military exercises with Belarus. No, I never pretended to be an expert, but thanks for reminding me.
It’s not like Putin hasn’t constantly insisted Russia has to have Ukraine … like they took Crimea.
I don’t recall ever hearing Putin say that Russia has to have Ukraine. I think Putin’s point is that he doesn’t want NATO missiles aimed at Moscow from Kyiv. But with reference to the ethnic map at Bunkerville yesterday, I’d bet that Putin would like to make Ukraine a much smaller country (noting that it’s only been a country since 1922). As for Crimea, what is it … 95% ethnic Russian with Putin having an 80% approval rating?
I don’t think we’ve ever suggested taking over Korea.
I think the U.S./U.N. invasion of N. Korea in 1950 was a pretty good effort to take over North Korea. Or maybe it’s only my addled brain that’s telling me that. No, it isn’t me. The 1st Marine Division got all the way to the Chosin Reservoir before China entered the fight.
Do you think that if it’s true that Ukraine is hard on Russians living there … that this possible incursion is what it takes? An enormous one like this? Then they do what? … go in and get their Russians out? Punish Ukraine somehow?
Let’s not confuse either Russia or Ukraine as democracies. Far from it. Both Russia and Ukraine are thugocracies. Yes, ethnic Ukrainians are hard on ethnic Russians, but Putin is only using that “concern” as a pretense for military action. Once Russian troops occupy the area of eastern Ukraine (where most people are ethnic Russian), it will become part of Russia. Bet on it.
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What IS the Russian word for “anschluss”?
Actually, I looked it up once and found it to be unpronounceable.
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Is that Los Anschluss, Ron?
;o)
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Again, I don’t have to answer because Mustang said what was on my mind in para 1 of his response. And, actually, in paras 2, 3, and 4. Since he worded it so much better than I would, I have little to add.
I don’t ascribe supernatural powers to Vlad, but he is way too skilled to stumble vis-a-vis Biden. Trump was, actually, less predictable in the sense that he didn’t cower behind diplomatic gobblety speak that ALL senior America politicians do, and would actually do something effective but sometimes with creativity – hence a little surprising. Putin knows what’s coming from Biden, NATO, the UN and all that crowd.
“bi-polar bears” 👍👍
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BP – связь or svyaz
Good!
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In 1938 the Brits, French, Italians, and Germans sat down to discuss Schickelgruber’s insistence that the German-speaking areas of Czechoslovakia be reincorporated into greater Germany.
Today we have France, Ukraine, Germany, and Russia sitting down to discuss Putin’s insistence that the predominantly ethnic Russian areas of Ukraine be reincorporated into Mother Russia.
Sudetenland, Anschluss, “Deutschland über Alles,” Wagner, “Ride of the Valkyries” . . .
Crimea, Ukraine, “The Internationale,” Alexander Alexandrov, “The Sacred War” . . . .
Echo . . . Back in the USSR . . . déjà vu all over again . . . haven’t we seen this movie??
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BOCOPRO; ANNEXATION is Anschluss…and it is NOT hard to pronounce but I’ll bet the Russian translation is!
THey say Russian is the most difficult language to learn..more letters; odd conjugations. Try learning French and German, folks….I love them both but…NO EASY.
Nearly every French or German instructor I knew, and I’ve known plenty, said “English is the easiest language to speak really badly but still be understood, and the most difficult to speak well”…
I think so…….for many reasons. But I hear Russia is QUITE some language!!
AND, yes “Back in the USSR” , and your last comment here, are perfect….we have seen that movie, and we’re about to see BACK IN THE USSR TWO!
BAYSIDER…you and MUSTANG are always such peas in a pod, aren’t you! ?
MUSTANG….Sorry if I hit nerves…..Sorry you don’t see EXCUSE..or REASON… and WHAT YOU THINK as similarly as I do.
MUSTANG and BAYSIDER…of course Putin would love to shrink Ukraine…and I’m thinking he wants it for Russia, probably not Norway or Finland… He’ll have at least the Eastern section.
And why wouldn’t all those Russians in Crimea give Putin a good rating? But let’s not kid ourselves and say taking Crimea was ‘no big deal’.
Today, there are serious political and economic crises fast approaching, and many say the glow is off Russia’s annexation….by those in Crimea.
Re Korea….I wasn’t talking about 70 years ago….
“Once Russian troops occupy the area of eastern Ukraine (where most people are ethnic Russian), it will become part of Russia. Bet on it.” I AM betting on it….It’s what I inferred..I’d say that’s a pretty darned big ‘punishment of Ukraine’.
Most Russians live in the East and South of Ukraine.
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Z, why such hate for S.P? (see. I didn’t mention her name!). I thought she was one of the “good guys”. She backed the Trump administration, and was an excellent Gov. for Alaska. What am I missing?
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MAL, I don’t ‘hate’ her ideology(mostly), I just can’t stand her ‘yukka yukka’ way of talking, the pop-eyed weirdness….just ME, I guess!! Although Kid kind of agreed somewhere above.
ALSO, I was a Romney fan when he was running…many of us were before we learned what he’s really about, the RINO.
Anyway, I remember he was in some city at a parking lot somewhere with a crowd and I heard Palin found out and appeared not far away, drawing crowds from him. I know it’s ‘dog eat dog’ but I thought that was plain (excuse me) SHITTY.
I just don’t admire her ONE BIT…. though I agree she was probably a good gov for Alaska.
I hope she recovers from the COVID she’s just tested positive for.
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I just want to say I am SO GRATEFUL I have NEVER seen anything close to what Tucker and others show about L.A. lately! It’s astonishing………..
SO grateful to Levin, who constantly reminds interviewers and interviewees “Every city has this stuff”….
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Okay, Z. Then kinda like Trump. You don’t care for the person, but approve of accomplishments.
I only wish the Dems had looked at Trump that way, too.
I always enjoyed her saying she likes moose stew.
(Hey! Nobody’s perfect.)
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MAL…EXACTLY! Thanks for understanding! Don’t care for the person, approve of accomplishments….
Not only Dems felt that way toward Trump, if more Christians and other Conservatives could have got past 3 marriages and nasty language, etc., we’d be AMERICAN again today!!!!!!
“moose stew!” HA!! Sounds awful, but only because I’ve never eaten moose 🙂
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